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Convective Initiation Forecasting and Statistical Evaluation Based on Satellite Data
LI Wusheng,WANG Hongqing,WANG Yu,WU Qiong
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract765)      PDF(pc) (795KB)(475)       Save
Eight forecast factors of convective initiation (CI) are calculated by using IR1, IR2 and WV TBB of MTSAT-1R satellite data based on target clouds identification. The critical values of forecast factors are proposed in Beijing-Tianjin region, and the 17 days test of convective initiation forecast in Beijing-Tianjin region during 2006 and 2007 is carried out. Results of the test show that this method of CI forecast can well forecast the CI occurs in the next one hour. The method of CI forecast results evaluation is proposed base on the atmospheric motion vectors, and a statistical analysis of the CI forecast results is conducted. Statistical results show that this CI forecast method has good TS score of 0.545, high POD of 0.654 and low FAR of 0.435.
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Research on the Characteristics of Wind Energy Resources over Huangang Wind Farm in Jiangsu Province
WANG Yefang,LI Chengcai,SHI Guangming,LI Jian,LI Wusheng,LI Shuyong,WANG Wei
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract640)      PDF(pc) (776KB)(341)       Save
Based on the analysis of wind data measured at one wind measurement tower over Huangang Wind Farm in Jiangsu Province from Dec. 2010 to Nov. 2011, it was calculated that at 10, 50, 70 and 80 m heights the annual average wind speed was 4.0?6.1 m/s, the annual average wind power density was 80.4?238.4 W/m2, the annual effective wind power density was 116.5?262.5 W/m2, the annual effective hours were 5777?7845 h, and the annual effective wind energy density was 679.3?2041.5 (kW?h)/m2. In addition, the dominant wind directions were NNE, N and NE, the sum of them took up nearly 30% of the full year wind directions, the wind energy density of the dominant wind directions accounted for almost 50% of the full year wind energy density, and the wind speed was mainly ranging from 3 to 8 m/s, about 80% of the full year wind speeds. Overall, wind energy resource was abundant in this region. Especially the hub height of the already built wind turbines had the wind power density of more than 250 W/m2, and the effective hours took up nearly 90% of the full year. Therefore, wind energy resource had a great value of development and utilization in this region.
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The Position Deviation of Geostationary Satellite Image and the Geometric Correction
LI Wusheng,WANG Hongqing,WU Qiong,WANG Yu,WANG Yefang
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis